Half of buyers are bracing for a crash. The other half are hoping for one. Here's what more than 100 housing experts are actually forecasting — and what it means for your next move.
Buyers are split right now. A recent survey from Clever found that a majority of Gen Z buyers are actually rooting for a price crash, just so homeownership feels within reach. Meanwhile, other buyers are worried that same crash is coming. So which is it? Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts on where prices are headed — and the newest results are in. Spoiler: they're not calling for a crash, not even the pessimists.
What the Newest Forecast Actually Says
The panel's latest forecast has home prices climbing every single year through at least 2030. On average, the group expects prices to rise close to 15% over the next five years. Even the most pessimistic experts on the panel still expect prices to grow by the end of the decade — just at a slower pace.
~14.7% average expected price growth over the next 5 years | ~6.6% growth expected even by the most pessimistic experts | 0 years of expected price decline through 2030 |
If you've been waiting for prices to fall before you make a move, you may be waiting a while. These are national figures — your local market could run a little hotter or cooler — but the broader signal is clear: prices aren't crashing. Historically, they tend to rise more often than they fall.
How This Quarter Compares to the Last
This survey runs four times a year, which makes it possible to track how the panel's mood shifts over time. A year ago, the experts expected prices to grow about 2.1% this year; now they're forecasting 2.5% — a slightly more optimistic near-term view. The years further out tell a different story: 2027 through 2029 are now each expected to see a bit less growth than the panel predicted a year earlier.
Every single year in the forecast still shows prices increasing — the size of the increase has simply moderated. A slower climb isn't a red flag; it's a sign the market is settling into a more normal pace after a few unusually wild years.
What It Means in Real Dollars
Percentages are useful, but equity is what actually matters to your bottom line. Run the numbers on a $400,000 home purchased today, and the panel's latest forecast puts you up roughly $58,000 in equity over the next five years from price growth alone.
The cost of waiting That's real wealth you could be building while others sit on the sidelines, waiting for a crash the experts don't see coming. If prices keep rising as forecast, waiting could simply mean paying more for the same home later. |
National Forecasts Are a Starting Point — Not the Full Story
Surveys like this one are useful for seeing where the overall market is headed, but no national number can tell you what's happening on your specific street, in your specific price range. That gap is exactly where having a local expert in your corner pays off.
Local data, not just national averages. Zander Realty Group tracks pricing trends street-by-street across our market, so you know how your neighborhood compares to the headlines. |
Timing guidance built around your goals. Whether you're weighing a purchase now or planning a sale down the road, our team helps you read the market instead of guessing at it. |
A straight answer, every time. No sales pressure — just the numbers and what they actually mean for your situation. |
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home prices about to crash?
The latest expert survey doesn't forecast a crash. Even the most pessimistic experts on the panel still expect prices to rise through 2030, just at a slower pace. Zander Realty Group tracks this data every quarter so our clients always have the current picture, not last year's headlines.
Why do some buyers want a crash to happen?
Many first-time buyers, especially younger ones, hope a crash would make homeownership more affordable. The forecast data suggests that's unlikely, which is why Zander Realty Group focuses on helping buyers find realistic paths to ownership today rather than waiting on a drop that may never come.
Why did the 2027–2029 forecast cool slightly?
It reflects the market settling into a more normal, sustainable pace after a few unusually volatile years — not a sign of falling prices. Our Zander Realty Group team can walk you through what that pace shift actually looks like in your neighborhood.
What does this mean for my local market?
These are national figures — your area could run hotter or cooler. This is exactly where working with Zander Realty Group pays off: reach out and we'll pull the real numbers for your street before you make a move.
Why work with Zander Realty Group specifically?
We combine the national data with hands-on local market knowledge, so you get a plan built around your goals and timeline — not a one-size-fits-all forecast.
Bottom Line
Whether you're bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the forecast says the same thing: prices are expected to keep rising, not fall. Let's talk about what that means for your market and your plans.
Wondering what this means for your plans? Let's look at what's happening in your specific market — no obligation. |
